ApoCalypso

THE EVENTUAL demise of T20 cricket is a glaring possibility, and one that would have occurred to the concerned stakeholders as the West Indies team (‘WI’) celebrated its return to the winner’s circle with uninhibited gusto. Due to the lacklustre display by the Indian sub-continent teams, there is little to celebrate for the stakeholders when it comes to the results of the T20 World Cup (“T20 WC”) and the future of T20 cricket, be it the IPL, Champions League T20, or any other T20 international fixture. While it’s great that a popular team which clearly fought the odds and celebrated with every dance move known to humanity came out trumps, the reality is far less kind. There is no positive that the stakeholders can take solace in, because an embattled format of the game which is already reeling from overexposure, fan indifference, and indeterminate valuations, now will face a contracting fan base and revenue models. 

There is little doubt that cricket is finding it difficult to expand its fan base and revenue collaterals. One of the primary reasons for this of course is that it lacks global exposure and awareness as opposed to football. T20 cricket especially would need a broadening of viewership and popularity zones to countries that are either future economic tigers, or else the established powerhouses. Little has come out of discussions that linked the growth of T20 cricket to China, the U.S., or other EU countries. And now India faces an uphill task at attaining elite status amongst the participating countries as it loses stars to retirement or bemusement at the ploys of speed over substance. There seems to be little scope for sustaining or expanding the revenue models.

It starts with the economic and quantitative make-up of the semi-finalists in the T20 World Cup. Australia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and the West Indies are established in the cricketing world, but hardly setting the ‘liquidity preference theory’ alight with either qualitative or quantitative strength. Australia is the 53rd most populous nation in the world, Sri Lanka the 57th. Pakistan at number 6 in population has doesn’t boast the economic might of others in the top 10. In India’s absence, Sri Lanka was the only participating nation considered an emerging economic dark-horse. It appears to have solved the political and ethnic strife, and is headed to an economic boom, if you will. Sri Lanka needed to win the T20 WC in order to remain relevant at a time when the target demographic with increased disposable income and an appetite for cultural role models is craving a success story. With the Sri Lanka Premier League aiming to expand its outreach, this was the best time to build upon the existing strengths and establish cricket as the national sport. Instead, and unfairly, Sri Lanka now has a reputation of futility, and uncertainty as to whether the team can ever win the championships that count. 

In domestic leagues, there is a growing focus on eliminating competition by deterring local stars from participating in domestic leagues in other countries. The cricket boards of Australia, England, and Sri Lanka may just discourage their players from participating in the IPL, so as to maintain player fitness, availability and endorsement for locally driven cricket tournaments. There is competition now for the IPL, and the cricket calendar has never been busier. There have also been concerns as to the bankability of valuations of teams and sponsorship packages for the league, and the upcoming season will test the fortitude of the first premier sports league in the Indian sub-continent as it faces the prospect of dwindling appetites for risk. 

Further to that, and perhaps completely unrelated is the perceived reluctance of blue-chip listed corporations to sponsor sports events such as the IPL as the return to investment is now clouded with the threat of sting operations or media exposure- mostly unwelcome. As a branding exercise, the social cost benefit analysis may have an artificially imposed glass ceiling that is significantly lower than was the case less than 4 years ago. So, as sports properties come into the limelight, the mettle of T20 cricket will be tested at a time when the Indian team is struggling for eminence, and legal/financial ramifications & accountability must be taken into account and fiduciary responsibilities towards shareholders & stakeholders is of primary importance.

All of this ties into why the WI victory may just be the harpoon that pierces the once impenetrable armour that cricket in India has deservedly enjoyed. Both tangibly and intangibly, the Windies victory spells likely trouble for the future of professional and international cricket across the various formats. From an economics and brand-value standpoint, the effect is mixed. The West Indies team is formed out of 15 Caribbean nations for the sole purpose of cricket. These include Jamaica, Trinidad & Tobago, Guyana, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, and others. In totality, there are approximately 6 million people represented by the Windies team. As a sport competing with baseball, track & field and football in a population that is 200 times smaller than India’s, the WI victory is likely a catastrophic contraction of the target demographic. 

And it doesn’t end there. In what could spell an end to establishing and creating a brand along with excelling at the three-format methodology, the West Indies team consists of individuals who have excelled in free-lancing and honing their gigantic skill-sets by mostly avoiding the restrictions of international cricket. Understandably, the players prefer to specialize in professional T20 cricket as a career than in honing their technique to become test or ODI record-breakers. So, Gayle, Pollard, and others will continue to provide their sizeable brands and services to domestic leagues across the world. This can spiral into a brand dilution for each team that employs the players or legal/compliance complications for the leagues or cricket boards to which these players belong, especially in multi-sanctioned global events. But, by winning the T20 WC, the Windies have shown aspiring players that club trumps country in priorities, without actually compromising on patriotism or adulation.

For the IPL, this is troubling. The league is facing a reverse talent drain, as specialist T20 players develop their skill and success in India, and then trump our national team due to their single-minded focus on the T20 game. The positive of course is that the IPL has created a system that develops and enhances the greatness of players across the world, who have become T20 brands. Watson, Warner, Pollard, Gayle, Malinga and Narine, to name a few. But, few Indians have crossed over to that level. If at the end of the day the brand value of the league gets diluted, or the sponsor pool shrinks, or the talent basket gets emptier, then the gamble on T20 cricket may just misfire.

There are questions as to what the stratified differential product is that IPL offers in a glaringly fatigued and now competitive market. Honestly, one really can’t be sure what that is, in this economy, this climate, or this frame of mind. There’s a fair chance that the IPL and BCCI will right the ship and figure out sustainable models that display corrected revenue and profitability projections. But, as competition increases and the scrutiny sears, there needs to be a complete strategic rethink as to where the sport of T20 cricket is headed, and how best to expand the bases that will allow the sport and the IPL to reap the benefits of an embattled format. Otherwise, even Gangnam style won’t save the great Indian road-show from riding off into the sunset and bring in the ApoCalypso.